Like Mike Tomlin, we once again avoided a loser record in Week 7, settling for a 3-3 mark to move the yearly number to 25-17 (.595). We didn’t know the Patriots were going to hang with the Bills, let alone beat them. Hands up, that’s on us. Let’s get out of neutral and back to 10mph over the speed limit with the six juiciest lines of Week 8.
Well, it finally happened. We lost a Lions bet. And lost it good, too, as Lamar Jackson went insane and Jared Goff failed to show up. The streak had to end sometime. But if you think for one second that we’re going to be deterred, especially with a dead-in-the-water Raiders team coming into a Monday night madhouse in the Motor City, then you haven’t been paying attention. It’s going to be an all-day party as Detroit fans realize that, hey, going into a bye at 6-2 and alive for homefield advantage really isn’t too bad. Lions 35, Raiders 13
Gardner Minshew is … good? Derek Carr … isn’t quite as good? Another throw-a-dart game as the season enters that phase where one realizes Vegas is devilishly good at setting lines that make your head hurt. And that there are precious few quarterbacks and teams that you can trust week to week. Colts 23, Saints 17
This is a tremendous amount of respect for an Atlanta team that has beaten up on some bad teams and feels pretty addicted to playing close games. Far better sides have come into Music City and left tattered, torn, and hurtin’ once Mike Vrabel gets done with them. Desmond Ridder is a bit loose with the ball, Arthur Smith feels like he doesn’t yet have the mettle to take the next step in a real playoff chase and the Titans are coming off a bye week that should allow everyone to get healthy. Then again, if ever a game were going to be up for grabs with four minutes to go and turn on a singular play, this is it so don’t go insane in the units department. Titans 25, Falcons 21
God help us, we’re riding with Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen. But the Bills lost to the Patriots last week! It’s not like Bill Belichick has any hold over Allen and the rest of that franchise. They showed up, allowed Mac Jones to slice up their defense, and were unable to take advantage of a very banged-up New England defense. As we’ve seen, an Allen-led offense can look brutal one week and elite the next, so there shouldn’t be a lot of worry there. But the losses of Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White may be hurting this defense more than we realize. Combined with the fact that the Bucs will make Buffalo one-dimensional thanks to their elite run defense and this line feels a bit too large. Bills 27, Buccaneers 21
Betting the Chiefs to beat the tar out of the Broncos is a very good idea at this point. Things have stabilized a bit in Denver after it looked like the train was not only flying off the tracks but also exploding early in the year. However, they are still a very bad team and the fact that they beat the Packers last week is not enough to believe they’ll hang close with Kansas City. The Chiefs’ offense is clearly still a work in progress but Andy Reid definitely spent many hours thinking up counters after his team mustered only 19 points when they met the Broncos two weeks ago. It won’t be a blowout of epic proportions but a double-digit line would have been justified. Since it’s less than that, we ride. Chiefs 23, Broncos 10
It sure is risky business backing a rookie QB on the road, but CJ Stroud is that dude. Bryce Young may be that dude but the roster around him makes it impossible to make that evaluation. Demeco Ryans has done a tremendous job coaching up Houston’s defense and the offense has completely bought into the Stroud hype, making for an energetic team that might top out at mediocre but dammiit if they won’t play as hard as possible. The vibes in Carolina are decidedly less fun as trade rumors swirl and the winless squad continues to struggle. Houston is not a good team but they are good enough to beat fellow bad teams and that’s just what will happen here. Texans 20, Panthers 16